As I mentioned in my blog of yesterday, "What is the state of the Boxers and Briefs in your home? Spring sales indicators ... ", I found an article on Kiplinger.com that addressed the question that is on most real estate professional's minds ... 
"What is the financial outlook for this Spring?"
According to the Kiplinger.com article mentioned, "10 Signs the Economy is on the Upswing", there are 10 everyday life-indicators suggesting that our economy is improving. I made some folly within my post of the #1 indicator speaking of boxers and briefs ... but truly, most of the indicators mentioned made sense when analyzed.
A comment I received regarding my post from SarahGray Lamm, Alan Tate Realtors, Chapel Hill, NC, suggested that this article was correct. The public's personal perception of indicators is perhaps the most reliable measure of how our economy is presently doing or where it's heading. The public is afterall, the frontline of the economy.
And SarahGray Lamm is right. Even though many economists speak of the current recession having actually turned the corner in fall of 2009 ... most Americans said "it ain't so!" Today's statistics, measured and reported by The Conference Board (conducted by the Nielsen Company), indicate that consumer confidence is again on the rise. I believe that they are right, as I am personally hearing comments in that vein and business calls I receive certainly reflect that as well.
This Spring's real estate market will most definitely be more sensitive than in the past due to the personal indicators talked about in the Kiplinger.com article. But there are other very large reasons that will most likely factor into making Spring 2011 atypical for real estate professionals and the public alike. They are, IMO:
- Major changes in the Financial Industry, effective April 1st (and that's no fooling!) Higher rates, higher lending costs, tightening of standards, etc., are all going to contribute to the effects seen.
- Interest Rates will most likely move firmly into the 5% - 6% range.
- Another wave of foreclosures is said to be lurking and predicted to hit the market sometime this Spring. That means more housing inventory to move through.
Although none of the above sounds optimistic, public sentiment and the statistics measuring them are proving to make an opposite case. "Hits" to Trulia.com saw an increase of 40% in January 2011 page visits over the same time as one year previously. Other similar websites are reporting much the same. I am seeing the same results on my own personal website.
An active interest in home buying seems to be re-emerging. There may be pockets of areas that may see further dips in home prices, but the pendulum seems to have already steadied or started to upswing in many major areas.
Now is the time for Realtors, as well as Lenders, to send an united message to the public that buyers can't afford to wait any longer. It's most likely to be a losing gamble if they do. (See my post "Reality Home Buying ... The Numbers Don't Lie. Buying NOW vs Later".
Spring is just around the corner. The mood and optimism of Americans is hopefully warming along with the temperatures. In the meantime, those thinking of becoming buyers and sellers need to prepare themselves for their possible entrance into the home market.
Real estate professionals should and can help them accomplish this preparation during these weeks leading up to Spring. Education and preparation is key to buying and selling success .. buyers, sellers, ... and ours.
Gene Mundt, Sr. Vice President
Personal NMLS #216987
The Federal Savings Bank
1823 Centre Point Circle, Naperville, IL 60563
Skype! 630-219-1316
Let's hope the momentum keeps going. Slowly but surely, as people see others buying they will start moving. It is a Catch 22 situation, but I am optimistic.
Good Morning Gene, I like the economic forecast! Although anything is possible, there's too many indicators to ignore. Especially for buyers of real estate. Now is definitely the time to buy. Interest rates are inching up and homes are still affordable. I just hope the crisis in the Middle East and rising gas and fuel cost don't take away any advantage consumers have to buy homes. Good post!
Jane: I do think that seeing of hearing of others taking action makes people think .. why not me? I'm just trying to get them to think about doing the research. Why not find out if it's possible? I think too many are paralyzed by fear right now ...
Clark: The Middle East turmoil has many nervous, no doubt. Interest rates have bounced back and forth some, but still are unbelievably low. NOW is the time to take action. The media needs to get back on our side ... not scare everybody.
Gene
Gene: Thanks for the positive message my friend. It should be a better year for purchases this year. I'm seeing more interest by buyers. Perhaps it's because they're afraid interest rates may move higher which will probably happen. Thanks again for the post!
Paul: So glad you're seeing and experiencing the same as I. I do think the rates have a good deal to do with it ... as they should. Slowly but surely, things are coming around. There may be some bumps, but I'm optimistic. Take care and thanks for writing ...
Gene
And yet - we have no clue what the chaos in the middle east will do to us. Maybe lots of people will sell homes and buy another closer work,so they'll burn less gas?
There you go, Joetta! Great idea! We all should be thinking of using less oil and gas ... for so many reasons. You mention a very good one ...
Gene